For NBA nerds, the Draft is Christmas, Thanksgiving, the 4th of July, and let’s say, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa, all rolled into one. It is the perfect cherry on top of the delicious ice cream sundae that is the NBA season. More than any other league, the NBA has absolutely perfected the yearly traditions of the draft: the lottery inciting all sorts of hilarious shindigs; loving and drooling over the draftees during the NCAA season; and of course, making fun of whatever dumb thing Cleveland does.
The other drafts are not even close. The NFL draft takes forever and individual players, for the most part, are lost in the team-oriented grind of the NFL season. The MLB draft has like 40 rounds and those players aren’t beacons of hope because they don’t actually play for the teams that draft them until many years later. And let’s be honest, no one gives a shit about hockey.
But in the NBA, a draftee is expected to produce right away. The jerseys are printed and the posters are made, plastered with faces not hidden by masks or helmet. The NBA is the best at selling one of the most sought after and expensive commodities in the sports world: hope.
Below is my mock draft for the first round, complete with trades. I don’t claim to have any inside information or special privileges because I work at ESPN. I’ve talked a few people here and there, but for the most part, this is pieced together from me watching way too much college ball, obsessing over way too many youtube clips, and pouring over way too many articles. Enjoy.
1st Pick
Cavaliers (trade pick to 76ers for 3rd,10th, and Thad Young)
The Pick: Andrew Wiggins
The Cavaliers suck. They need help basically everywhere, and no one player is going to save them. It makes a ton of sense to trade this pick to 76ers, who are desperate to get Wiggins and are willing to overpay. Thad Young isn’t the answer for the Cavs, but then again, neither is Wiggins or Parker. No one player is going to dramatically alter their team this year, and the Cavaliers still have potentially franchise altering players available to them at 3, so it makes sense to get a proven scorer in Young (who can also serve as insurance should the Cavs be unable to resign Luol Deng), and the 10th pick (which, in this draft, will get you another quality starter). It doesn’t help that Parker apparently tanked his workout with the Cavs. Whatever happens, it seems pretty clear to me that Cleveland has absolutely no hope of it working out. Because. Well. It’s Cleveland.
2nd Pick
Bucks
The Pick: Jabari Parker
The Bucks have been eyeing Parker all year. If he’s here at two, they take him, and they’re ecstatic about it. I had the honor of doing the highlight for Jabari Parker’s first NCAA game. He can do everything, and will be an NBA Star.
3rd Pick
76ers (trade pick to Cavs for 1st Pick)
The Pick: Dante Exum
Kyrie Irving looks miserable. All he wants to do is score, but then he’s got to do this whole, ‘point guard’ thing. What’s worse, his running mate, Dion Waiters, sorta hates him and is shot hungry himself. Exum, on the other hand, is a maester at penetration, and even said himself that he loves getting into the lane and finding people. Irving has never been a vocal leader. With Exum taking on that burden, Irving can go back to focusing on what he loves doing: scoring. The Cavs can then either choose to move Waiters or slide him over to the three, creating two dynamic scorers to play off of Exum. Exum is also big enough to guard opposing shooting guards so that Irving won’t be abused on the defensive end. It makes too much sense to happen, unfortunately, because lets be honest, we’re talking about the Cavs here. And the Cavs suck.
4th Pick
Magic
The Pick: Joel Embiid
If you’re the Magic, you happily take the best player in the draft at four and just move on. Very rarely are seven footers as fluid and dynamic as Embiid, and he’s still just learning to play the game. The Magic can afford to be bad for another season and allow Oladipo to develop. Also, as you will see later in the mock, the Magic will have more picks with which to get players who will play this year.
5th Pick
Jazz
The Pick: Noah Vonleh
Vonleh struck me as soft at Indiana, and people saying he could turn into the next LaMarcus Aldridge are forgetting how dominant Aldridge was at a Texas. Vonleh averaged 11 and 9 at Indiana, solid numbers considering he wasn’t a featured part of the Indiana offense. The Jazz have committed a lot of money to Derrick Favors. Favors is a more a bruiser and combines well with Vonleh, who can step back and knock down a three point shot (he shot nearly 50% from beyond the arc last year). The reason I don’t love this pick is because the Jazz need a lot of help, and taking a glorified Mehmet Okur doesn’t strike me as very impactful. Unfortunately, Julius Randle and Aaron Gordon, the two players have potential to be real difference makers, are too similar to Favors, a player that the Jazz have indicated is their guy going forward, so Vonleh makes the most sense.
6th Pick
Celtics
The Pick: Aaron Gordon
Gordon has a ton of upside, and I’m already salivating over the fun we’ll have watching Rajon Rondo throw alley oops for days to a soaring Gordon. Gordon demonstrated that he can occasionally knock down a jumper, and if he figures that skill out, Gordon has poor man’s Blake Griffin written all over him.
7th Pick
Lakers
The Pick: Marcus Smart
Kobe is one of my favorite players, and it’s been wonderful fun watching him age and evolve in a way that reminds me a lot of the later parts of Michael Jordan’s career. He’s an offensive DH, a deadly assassin from all over the court, and a merciless competitor. Unfortunately, the dude’s old, and unless we find a fountain of youth somewhere, Kobe’s career is close to over, and the Lakers need someone new to inspire hope in Laker-land. Marcus Smart would have been the first overall pick last year if he had decided to come out, and was on his way to being in the Wiggins-Parker- Randle conversation at the beginning of the year before being derailed by some poor shooting and a racist dude from Texas. I’ve never been angrier at the media for tearing apart a kid that should have been applauded for standing up for himself. Marcus Smart is the embodiment of everything you want on your basketball team, a great kid and a tireless worker. I’m not a Lakers fan. I don’t particularly like the Lakers. But the NBA is a better place when the Lakers are good, and I hope they make this pick and Marcus Smart turns into the second coming of Dwyane Wade. For all he’s been through, he deserves it.
8th Pick
Kings
The Pick: Elfrid Payton
According to media sources, Elfrid Payton has destroyed every workout that he’s been in, and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see him go even higher than this. The dude has spectacular measurements and is a freak of nature athlete. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a natural leader, something the Kings are sorely lacking. He doesn’t need shots, which is perfect for a team that already has a lot of scorers hungry for the ball.
9th Pick
Hornets
The Pick: Nik Stauskas
Stauskas’s name might as well be #buckets. He shoots, he drives, he dunks on people. And he’s Canadian, which means he’s going to be a great locker room guy and super nice. /endracism. I love Stauskas’s game, and if the Bulls weren’t all in on getting vets to win right now, I’d be yelling at my TV for the Bulls to trade up and get this kid (just like I yelled at my TV for the Bulls to draft MarshOn Brooks, who still has potential to be a great player, by the way). In the meantime, enjoy this clip of Stauskas dunking on people.
10th Pick
76ers (traded pick to Cavs for 1st Pick)
The Pick: Julius Randle
And the Cavaliers are rewarded for getting value from their first overall pick. A foot injury will scare a lot of people away from Randle, but remember folks, Randle, and not Embiid, was a member of the big three before the season started. I did a lot of Kentucky highlights this season, and Randle is just a straight up man child. He can step out and hit a midrange jumper, and he’s also surprisingly nimble along the baseline and while in the air. People have thrown out the Z-Bo comparison, and I’m not sure I agree with that. They’re both big, physical players, but Randolph is a lot more athletic, and can manipulate his body in ways that Z-Bo cannot. Great value pick for the Cavs here, as they get a player who can help immediately and also develop into an all star a few years down the line.
11th Pick
Nuggets
The Pick: Gary Harris
The talent starts to drop off here, although it’s still very good. Gary Harris has a smooth stroke and was one of the best players on a very good Michigan squad. This is the best value pick for the Nuggets, who could use another shooter to pair with the explosive Ty Lawson.
12th Pick
Magic
The Pick: James Young
James Young was often overlooked on a Kentucky team laden with squads, but during the tournament he was one of their best scoring options. His versatility would be great for Orlando, and in Young the Magic have a player they can count on to bear some of the scoring load right away. The Magic really struggled to score last year, and getting a bonafide scorer like Young will certainly help. This is a bit of a stretch; other mock drafts have Young more in the early 20’s range. But during Kentucky’s late run into the tournament, the player that kept on stepping up over and over again was Young, who could evolve into a leader on this very young Orlando squad.
13th Pick
Timberwolves
The Pick: Zach Lavine
This pick is contingent on the trade between the Warriors and the Timberwolves, which according to Chad Ford on the BS Report, is all but done. The Wolves have a surprisingly good roster, filled up and down with young talent and developing stars. At this point, the Wolves just have to swing for the fences, and UCLA’s Zach Lavine has All-Star potential written all over him. The athleticism is all there, and coming off the bench and learning from one of the headiest two guards in the league in Klay Thompson will be great for Lavine’s development.
14th Pick
Suns
The Pick: Adreian Payne
Payne fits in perfectly with the Suns pick and pop system, and is NBA ready. He put up great measurements at the combine and could be a good replacement for Jared Dudley should the Suns choose to move him in search of another star.
15th Pick
Hawks
The Pick: Rodney Hood
The Hawks are trying to be the Spurs of the East, and their three point shooting ways almost got them by the Pacers during the playoffs. Al Horford and Paul Millsap are the frontcourt of the future for Atlanta, but both those guys are 6’8, and although Horford and Millsap are both excellent rebounders, having height in the backcourt can help shore up any difficulties that the Hawks might have rebounding against bigger squads. The Hawks were 3rd from last in the league last year in offensive rebounding rate, which is surprising considering how many long shots they took throughout the season. Hood is not a particularly good rebounder, but his height, and his prolific shooting, mean he can fit a couple of needs simultaneously here.
16th Pick
Bulls (Traded to Orlando for Arron Afflalo)
The Pick: Dario Saric
Saric was projected to be a top 10 pick before signing an extension Anadolu Efes, a club in Turkey. Saric is either the next Toni Kukoc or a more athletic Dirk Nowitzki, depending on how ambitious you’re feeling. He’d be a great fit alongside Nikola Vucevic, who proved this season that he can be a potential franchise center. The Magic would also consider Yusuf Nurkic here, the humongous center out of Bosnia, but in the long run Saric has more upside and the Magic don’t want to overload on young players with four first rounders. Plus, if the Celtics don’t take him at 17, there’s a high likelihood he’d drop to them at 19.
17th Pick
Celtics
The Pick: TJ Warren
Andre Miller is probably my favorite player in the NBA. He absolutely abused DJ Augustin in the playoffs, to the extent that the Bulls couldn’t even keep Augustin on the floor for offensive purposes. His smarts, prolific use of ass, and wily veteran moves ensure that no matter where he goes or how old he gets, Andre Miller will always be able to GET BUCKETS. Now take a deep breath: TJ Warren might be next level Andre Miller. He can score from everywhere, using the same veteran moves that Miller uses. The difference is that Warren is 6’8, can hit threes every now and again, plays voracious defense. He’ll need to shore up his shooting (he has a very awkward shooting stroke) but eventually he’ll be able to figure it out. This pick is largely contingent on how the Celtic feel about Jeff Green, who has at times enthralled, and infuriated, Celtics faithful. If the Celtics are looking to move Green in the future, Warren makes a lot of sense here.
18th Pick
Suns
The Pick: Doug McDermott
The Suns are looking to win now, so expect them to move this pick, which has relatively little value for them. If they do use the pick, they’ll take McDermott, a scoring machine whose lack of athleticism can be covered up by the other hyper athletes on the Suns. In a normal draft, McDermott would be much higher, but this draft is so loaded it’s not outrageous for him to fall this low. Zach Lowe said in a podcast with Bill Simmons a few months ago that McDermott’s worst case scenario is Kyle Korver. How many 3’s does Kyle Korver hit last year if he’s on that Suns team with Bledsoe and Dragic slicing and dicing in the paint?
19th Pick
Bulls
The Pick: Jusuf Nurkic
And the Magic’s gamble pays off. Nurkic is enormous, coming in at 6’11, 280 pounds, to go along with a 7’2 wingspan. Nurkic, primarily a banger inside, plays beautifully with Vucevic, who is more of a face up, top of the key type player. Extra bonus: Nurkic gives the Magic the hardest to pronounce frontcourt in the league.
20th Pick
Raptors
The Pick: Tyler Ennis
THE HERO COMES HOME. Tyler Ennis and all his Canadian swag will be a perfect back up to Kyle Lowry as he learns the NBA ropes. Drafting Ennis also gives the Raptors flexibility to move Lowry in the future, possibly to put another All Star next to Demar Derozan (although Lowry should have, by any and all calculations, been an all star last season). Ennis was one of my favorite players in collegiate basketball this year. There aren’t a whole lot of freshman who can do this. Ennis can certainly go much earlier in the draft, depending on other teams valuations of players like Smart, Exum, and Payton. But for right now, it looks like things are falling into place for the Raptors to really short up their backcourt depth.
21st Pick
Thunder
The Pick: Kyle Anderson
He’s talented. He’s multi-dimensional. He’s exactly the kind of player that the Thunder love picking, raw talent with a ton of upside. This is a great value pick for the Thunder, as Anderson has oscillated from the late lottery all the way to the later parts of the first round.
22nd Pick
Grizzlies
The Pick: Jerami Grant
Grant is a blue collar player who will fit in well here as the Grizzlies try to find a long term replacement for Tayshaun Prince. Has a ton of upside and could evolve into defensive stopper. His jumper needs work, but he’s a great slasher who will combine well with one of the best passers in the league in Marc Gasol.
23rd Pick
Jazz
The Pick: P.J Hairston
The Jazz really struggle to score due to a lack of 3 point shooting. Hairston shot nearly 40% from behind the arc next year, and would go a lot higher in the draft if not for his past indiscretions. Hairston can get buckets though, and the Jazz need buckets in the worst kind of way. Hairston has already been playing in the D-League too, so he’s ready to go from day 1, which is important considering that the Jazz are trying to convince Gordon Hayward to stay. It’s not Jabari Parker, who the Jazz are said to covet, but Hairston has a similar skill set scoring wise and could eventually become a solid starter.
Note: According to nbadraft.net, the Jazz have made a promise here to Jordan Adams, another knockdown shooter. Regardless of who they pick, it seems pretty clear that the Jazz will prioritize shooting here.
Note: According to nbadraft.net, the Jazz have made a promise here to Jordan Adams, another knockdown shooter. Regardless of who they pick, it seems pretty clear that the Jazz will prioritize shooting here.
24th Pick
Hornets
The Pick: Jordan Adams
The Hornets need shooting in a bad kind of way, and assuming that the Jazz haven’t made a promise to Jordan Adams (again, only nbadraft.net appear to be reporting this story) Adams would be a solid pick who can play right away for a Hornets teams that is not far away from relevancy.
25th Pick
Rockets
The Pick: Shabazz Napier
The Rockets need a backup point guard for Patrick Beverly, and given how shaky Jeremy Lin has been, Shabazz Napier is a tremendous value here. Napier showed up in all the biggest games and didn’t shy away from the moment. this pick will give the Rockets the flexibility to trade Lin and stay in contention for the Carmelo Anthony/Lebron James/KLove and Special Sauce sweepstakes.
26th Pick
Heat
The Pick: Glenn Robinson III
Ray Allen was largely ineffective in the finals and finally, after so many years, appears to be on his way out of the league. The Heat will want to show Lebron that they’re in serious win now mode, and Robinson III is a proven player who can step in and make an immediate impact after playing for a very competitive Michigan squad.
27th Pick
Suns
The Pick: C.J Wilcox
The Suns have their backcourt of the future set with Dragic and Bledsoe. All the need now are big dudes who can pick and pop (aka, Adreian Payne), and shooter who can populate the corners and feast on the penetration of the Dragon. Wilcox has a solid stroke and could develop into one the steals in the draft.
28th Pick
Clippers
The Pick: Jordan Adams
Adams is a big guard who can play multiple positions, and would provide an interesting foil to JJ Reddick, as Adams is much more athletic. High likelihood this pick gets traded though, as the Clipper continue their pursuit of LeBron.
29th Pick
Thunder
The Pick: Clint Capela
The Thunder are an analytics heavy squad, and Capela, according to nbadraft.net, tested out of the gym in the analytics analysis. The Thunder can stash Capela overseas, let him develop, and have him come back as a defensive stopper to replace the corpse of Thabo Sefolosha.
30th Pick
Spurs
The Pick: Mitch McGary
This just feels like a sneaky pick the Spurs would make. Last year McGary had the tournament of his life and played himself all the way into the lottery before deciding to return to Michigan. He had an injury plagued sophomore season as Michigan, but a recent workout with the Bucks revealed that he is healthy. McGary has a ton of upside here and could be a solid center for the Spurs once TIMMMMMMAYYYY retires in 2024.
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