Is Taj Gibson Overrated? (part 2 - defense)

Taj Gibson is the secretary of defense, according to Stacey King.  If you asked Bulls fans, Taj is a shot blocking, ball stealing fiend.  For the most part, this is true.  Taj has the very rare ability to guard smaller, faster players out on the perimeter. Players aren’t just ‘good’ or ‘bad’ at defense though.  Gibson excels in certain areas of Tom Thibodeau’s defensive scheme, but surprisingly, also has a few areas where he struggles mightily.  

Coach Thibodeau’s defensive scheme plays the pick and roll very aggressively, especially in late game situations.  Switching those screens prevents guards from penetrating into the lane. If Taj wasn’t as fast and as athletic as he is, the late games system wouldn’t work.  That’s why you see Taj in at the end of games instead of Boozer - Boozer doesn’t have the footspeed to switch onto those smaller guards.  

Taj Gibson is great at defending driving guards on the pick and roll switch

The stats are slightly less encouraging than the eye test.  Taj is good, but not great, at switching on the pick and roll and guarding faster players.  They score on him about 42% of the time, which is pretty high, compared to other players in the league (Compare this to Joakim, who smaller guards score on about 38% of the time).  However, Taj is a little better than most of the league at turning those smaller guards over, and fouls only 5% of the time.  This second stat especially  is key on a Bulls team that essentially has a seven man rotation.  

After watching every pick and roll situation that leads to an isolation this year (yes, this took a very long time), whenever the opposing guards puts the ball down and dribbles, Taj does a damn near exceptional job of forcing a difficult shot.  Our eyes don’t deceive us too much - most of the time, if the opposing guard puts his head down and tries to go to the basket, the secretary of defense will be there.  

Taj’s exceptional defense of drives comes at a cost, though.  The reason Taj is so good at guarding those drives is because he sags off.  Joakim does the same thing, and the logic is sound - it’s much better for those guards to have to make a tough jumper over a long defender than get an easy lay in at the lane.  Most of the points from these isolation plays comes when the defender doesn’t attempt to drive, but instead pops and shoots while Taj is backpedaling, expecting a drive.  Taj has long arms, and that allows him to sag a little bit more than most, but if there’s one place to shore up Taj’s otherwise excellent pick and roll defense, it’s here.  It’s really only the high percentage shooting guards that Taj struggles against.  He’s one of the best in the league (top quarter) when isolated on bigs that aren’t nearly as good of shooters.  

Taj’s difficulties guarding shooters translates over to the post.  When the big is a competent shooter, Taj once again excels when the opposing players tries to go at him and struggles when the opposing layer is taking a jumper.  When the offensive player faces up against Taj from the left block (where a lot of bigs like to go, because the majority of players are right handed), they score almost 60% of the time.  Taj is much better from the right block, but this is presumably because most offensive players are much worse on the right block.  

So this all comes back to the question that prompted this little investigation.  Is Taj Gibson overrated?  As is usually the case in sports, there’s not really a definitive yes or no answer.  

As an offensive threat, Taj probably gets a little bit more credit than he deserves, but improving his jumper in the 15-20 foot range would do wonders in terms of his productivity.  Taj moved away from the basket this season, and although he’s not nearly as effective from 10-15, that’s where he’s going to have to learn to score when Derrick Rose comes back next year.  Rose’s penetration forces defenses and bigs to collapse and clog the lanes, lest they get decimated by the Windy City Assassin.  If Taj can make, say, 50% of his jumper between 10-15 feet, instead of the 40% he is making now, it would make a world of difference.  Taj was drafted as low as he was because teams were unsure if he would ever be able to make a 15 foot jumper consistently.  The Bulls bit in the hopes that he would figure it out.  He hasn’t exactly made riveting progress each year, but he has good mechanics, and according to those in the Bulls organization, a very strong work ethic.  

Taj’s defensive is particularly valuable to the Bulls.  There aren’t many bigs agile enough to do what he does, and that’s why the Bulls gave him the big extension  instead of holding on to Omer Asik.  Big O was great, but he wasn’t nearly the speedster that Taj is.  Taj is a good defender, above average, even.  But it can’t be lost on Bulls fans that Taj is the beneficiary of a system that plays directly to his skill set.  He is a better player on the Bulls than on many other teams.  

Many Bulls fan seem to lump Taj in the ‘untradeable’ bracket alongside Joakim, Derrick, and Jimmy.  My thought is that they’re wrong, but not by much.  You win with guys like Taj on your team.  Taj is very very good at what he does, and is an extremely valuable player to the Bulls.  At the end of the day though, I think he’s closer to a Udonis Haslem or Mike Miller type player: a good piece for a great team, but not anything close to a player who can handle a real load offensively or defensively.  He’s not an anchor like Joakim on the defensive end, he’s not a guy you can dump the ball down to 15-20 types a night on the offensive end.  He is, exactly as Stacey King loves to say, a ‘Hard hat, lunch pail’ type of player.  For Chicago, that might just be enough.



**All stats and research acquired via Synergy Stats**